The Race to Freedom: Hong Kong and the Beijing Threat to Democracy Before 2047

Ona Elkins

oelkins@unca.edu

International Studies

In 1997, Hong Kong was released from British colonial control back to China on the agreement that the territory would be able to operate under a policy of “One Country, Two Systems'' until 2047. This policy allowed Hong Kong a degree of governmental autonomy from the Beijing government in mainland China while still remaining inherently Chinese. It also prompted the creation of a Hong Kong constitution called the “Basic Law” which promised universal suffrage before the year 2047. However, Beijing has recently blurred these lines of separation and ramped up its influence in Hong Kong. In light of these increased tactics of repression from Beijing, I ask the research question, “Will Hong Kong’s efforts to democratize result in achieving universal suffrage before 2047?” I examine factors such as Beijing's policies, wealth, colonial history, and electoral structure to determine the extent of democratization efforts in the city. The main variables highlighted in this study are the authoritarian Beijing policies after the 2020 pandemic which resulted in a weakened state of democracy in the territory. This study examines the statistical effects of these policies on voter turnout, election results, and democracy index scores. Using multiple linear regression models in R, the results indicate that the Beijing policies have a significant and negative impact on each democracy indicator. These effects suggest a troubling future for democracy in Hong Kong and, if these trends continue, indicate a likely failure to achieve universal suffrage. I analyze these results in the context of modernization, rampant inequality, and government repression against a democracy movement that refuses to be silenced.

Jul-16-2024