Title:
Analyzing June Southeastern US CAPE Trends Between 1944-2023
Author(s):
Steven Rearden
Author Email:
srearden@unca.edu
Department:
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Faculty Mentor(s):
Elaine Godfrey
Abstract / Summary:
Convective available potential energy (CAPE) describes the level of atmospheric instability and potential updraft strength that can contribute to thunderstorm development. Particularly high values indicate the possibility of severe convection, which can threaten life and property. Studies suggest that climate change will cause a change in dynamics contributing to CAPE; however, the resultant change in CAPE from these changes remains unclear. This highlights the need for trend analyses to determine where high CAPE values are becoming more or less common. Previous studies display particularly inconsistent CAPE trend results for the Southeastern US, a region that often experiences high CAPE during the summer months. These studies also fail to describe trends specific to peak heating times, when CAPE is typically highest. This research addresses these problems by using ERA5 reanalysis data to investigate long-term CAPE trends in the Southeast for 2000 UTC for the month of June. An 80-year analysis provides a more comprehensive and complete picture of CAPE fluctuations, and the regional aspect allows for the observation of more localized changes. Results display distinct differences in localized CAPE changes over time within the Southeast. Averaged regional trends also reveal non-linearities in CAPE trends throughout the analysis period.
Publication Date:
May-14-2024
Documents: